How Pokies Work – RTP, Volatility & Hit Rate Explained

Every pokie spin feels simple – tap the button, watch the reels, hope to land a big win. But behind the lights and animations, pokies are driven by maths and software. Understanding RTP, volatility and hit rate can help you read game info screens properly and make smarter decisions about how you play and manage your bankroll.

This guide breaks down these concepts in plain English so you know what they really mean when you open an online pokie in Australia.

Random Number Generators (RNG) – The Core of Every Spin

All licensed online pokies use a Random Number Generator (RNG). The RNG is a piece of software that constantly produces random numbers every millisecond, even when nobody is spinning.

When you press the spin button:

• The game takes a snapshot of the current RNG value.
• That number is mapped to a combination of symbols on the reels.
• The reels animation is just a visual way of revealing the result that was already determined.

This means:

• Each spin is independent – the game doesn’t “remember” past wins or losses.
• There is no “due to pay” or “this machine is hot/cold” in a mathematical sense.
• Stopping the reels manually doesn’t change the outcome; it just ends the animation faster.

Once you accept that pokies are driven by RNG, the next step is learning how RTP, volatility and hit rate describe their long-term behaviour.

What Is RTP (Return to Player)?

RTP stands for Return to Player. It’s usually shown as a percentage, such as 96.2%. This number represents how much of the total amount wagered on a game is theoretically paid back to players over a very long period of time.

For example:

• A pokie with 96% RTP will, in theory, return $96 for every $100 wagered – over millions of spins.
• This is not a guarantee that you personally will get back 96% of your money.
• One player might hit a huge win quickly, another might lose their full balance in a short session.

RTP is a long-term average, not a promise for any single session or individual player. However, it’s still useful:

• Games with higher RTP are generally more player-friendly over the long run.
• RTP below 94–95% is considered relatively low for modern online pokies.

What Is Volatility (Variance)?

Volatility (or variance) describes how a pokie distributes its payouts. It has nothing to do with the average RTP percentage and everything to do with how that RTP is delivered.

Most pokies fall into one of these general categories:

• Low volatility: frequent small wins, fewer big spikes.
• Medium volatility: balanced mix of small and medium hits, occasional big wins.
• High volatility: long dry spells with the potential for very large payouts.

Two games can both have 96% RTP, but:

• The low-volatility game may give you lots of small returns, keeping your balance “alive” longer.
• The high-volatility game may feel “dead” for many spins, then suddenly drop a big bonus or huge multiplier.

Choosing volatility is mostly about your risk appetite and bankroll size:

• If you prefer steady play and more time on the game, low or medium volatility is usually safer.
• If you’re chasing big wins and accept bigger swings, high volatility might be more appealing.

What Is Hit Rate?

Hit rate (or hit frequency) is the estimated percentage of spins that result in any kind of win – even a small one that’s less than your bet.

Example:

• A hit rate of 30% means that, on average, 3 out of 10 spins will show some payout.
• A hit rate of 15% means only around 1–2 spins out of 10 will pay anything at all.

Hit rate is closely related to volatility:

• Low-volatility games often have higher hit rates with smaller payouts.
• High-volatility games usually have lower hit rates but bigger potential wins when they hit.

Some games list hit rate in their info section, while others only describe general volatility.

How RTP, Volatility & Hit Rate Work Together

These three elements describe different aspects of the same pokie:

• RTP: long-term average percentage of money returned.
• Volatility: how smooth or “swingy” the payout curve feels.
• Hit rate: how often you see any win at all.

A simplified example:

• Game A: 96.5% RTP, low volatility, 35% hit rate – many small wins, rare big features.
• Game B: 96.5% RTP, high volatility, 18% hit rate – fewer wins, but free spins or bonus rounds can be huge.

Both return a similar percentage in theory, but the experience is completely different.

Bankroll Management: Matching Game Type to Your Budget

Understanding how pokies work is only half the equation; the other half is how you manage your bankroll.

Some practical tips:

• Set a fixed budget for each session and stick to it.
• On high-volatility games, consider smaller bet sizes to survive longer dry spells.
• On low-volatility games, you may be able to use slightly higher bets while still getting regular returns.
• Never chase losses; the RNG doesn’t “owe” you a big win after a bad run.

The goal is not to “beat” the game mathematically, but to enjoy the experience while keeping your spending under control.

Common Myths About Pokies

Because pokies are random, a lot of myths develop around them. Here are a few to be careful of:

• “This game hasn’t paid for a while, it’s due to hit.”
  False. Each spin is independent; past results don’t change future odds.
• “Stopping the reels at the right moment changes the outcome.”
  False. The outcome is decided when you press spin, not when you stop the reels.
• “Casinos can secretly change the RTP on the fly.”
  Licensed operators use approved game builds; changing RTP requires regulatory approval and isn’t done mid-session.
• “There’s a perfect strategy to guarantee profit.”
  False. No betting pattern can overcome the built-in house edge over time.

Reading a Pokie’s Info Screen

Most online pokies include a help or info section where you can see important technical details. Look for:

• RTP % – often shown in the game rules or paytable section.
• Volatility rating – sometimes indicated as low/medium/high.
• Paylines and bet size range – helps you match the game to your bankroll.
• Feature description – explains free spins, multipliers, bonus games and special symbols.

Spending a minute reading this section before you play can save confusion later and gives you a clearer picture of what to expect.